Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 491

Chapter 491: Chapter 64, The French-Russian Rapprochement
 

In the spring of 1871, the Roman rebellion led by Garibaldi and Mazzini ultimately ended in failure, and the Rebel Army leaders were forced into exile overseas.

Against the backdrop of the imminent British-French-Austrian tripartite alliance, in order to maintain relations with France, the London Government did not grant them political asylum this time.

However, true to its troublemaking nature, John Bull stepped in and sent them to the United States of America. This was a favorite haven for the Revolutionary Party in Europe, who liked to seek political refuge in the U.S., for two main reasons.

On the one hand, being thousands of miles away and less influenced by international politics, the Federal government was keen to shelter political dissidents, ensuring everyone’s safety.

On the other hand, in economic terms, the United States of America was undergoing solid economic development and, as a European immigrant nation, one could get funding from fellow countrymen.

If one were only concerned about safety, actually hiding in the thinly populated colonies offered even greater secrecy, where one could build a farm in some rural area and lead a reclusive life without any problems.

Very few people chose colonies as a place of refuge, unless they had committed a monumental crime, were being hunted down, and had to change their identity completely.

The end of the Italian Area revolution signified the consolidation of French rule there. During the war, the anti-French forces in Italy were dealt a devastating blow.

The threat posed by France was already great, and it was not just in terms of human resources, economy, or industry; the greater threat stemmed from the shadow left by the Napoleonic Era.

The French were known as the world’s number one land power, and no country on the European Continent disputed this, which spoke volumes.

Otherwise, on the human resources front, Russia and Austria together equaled twice that of the French region; in industrial terms, the Anglo-Austrian axis was above that of France; and economically, John Bull far surpassed the French.

If one were to calculate comprehensive national power as done in later times, France would fall far behind the Anglo-Austrian two countries and be on par with the Russian Empire, and even if there were disparities, they would not be too great.

Yet, on the European Continent, the sense of crisis brought by France was the most intense.

Despite Austria having more land, a larger population, in everyone’s eyes, the Balkan Peninsula was seen as the Savage Land and the Hungarian Region as merely a rural backwater.

Not to mention the Russian Empire, which had firmly established its image as barbaric. Following their defeat in the Prusso-Russian war, the focus on the Russians diminished.

In the eyes of many, the already formidable France, which had now annexed the wealthy Italian Area, caused widespread anxiety among European nations about French expansionism.

There’s no denying, in that era, Italy was perceived as wealthy. Even Sicily, which would be seen as poor and backward in later times, was then considered a rich land.

After annexing the Italian Area, France’s population, economy, and resources were all strengthened, and the Greater French Empire glowed with even greater splendor.

Facing this situation, European nations strove to secure their safety through diplomatic means, while avoiding conflicts with France or other countries.

As a leader in power politics, it’s not hard to understand why Napoleon III forcibly annexed the Italian Area. Apart from paving the way for his son, it was also to stir up national sentiment and strengthen the national cohesion.

This is the price that historically powerful nations must pay, just as Engels said: Forcibly annexing the Italian Area is the best way for the French autocracy to perpetuate itself eternally.

Otherwise, if Napoleon III had simply been co-Emperor of Italy, governance would have been more convenient, and the Italians would not have been so resistant.

In this regard, France and Austria shared some similarities, except Franz had the banner of the Shinra Empire to use, with ample justification, such that people from the annexed German Confederation did not resist, unlike those under Napoleon III who lacked such a basis.

With the establishment of the Greater French Empire, Napoleon III had completed the grand feat of annexing Italy, even though Lombardy and Venice were left out, which wasn’t a significant loss.

Moreover, with two less regions, the difficulty of ruling decreased.

France was very aware of the cost of forcibly annexing the Italian Area, yet they were confident they could suppress the Italians with their own strength.

In such circumstances, of course, it was better for the Italian Area to be a bit smaller; after digesting the conquest, there would still be time for expansion.

The previous annexation of the Kingdom of Sardinia had already provided a reference for the French, who easily established dominion there with their formidable strength.

The current backlash was simply a result of overindulgence, without having had the time to digest properly.

In order to establish a stable international situation to digest the conquest, Napoleon III repeatedly declared that France was a “satisfied” nation and would not continue to expand on the European Continent.

This reassurance was not enough to alleviate everyone’s anxiety, but compelled by reality, the governments had to accept this claim.

Napoleon III’s greatest fear was finding himself isolated, just like during the Anti-French Wars when mighty France was overwhelmed by enemies on all sides.

To prevent the worst case scenario, Napoleon III accepted the insidious entry of the British into the France-Austrian Alliance. While forming an alliance with England, France, and Austria, he was also easing relations with the Russian Empire.

Times had changed, and the Russian Empire was no longer a threat to France. To move further ahead, calls for a “French-Russian Alliance” had already emerged within the French government.

Without a doubt, these calls were ignored by Napoleon III, but this didn’t prevent him from using them as a scarecrow to intimidate others.

Forming a French-Russian Alliance was easier said than done. The Russian-Austrian Alliance and the British-French-Austrian tripartite alliance were two major obstacles that were impossible to bypass.

Unless the Vienna Government had lost its mind, it would never allow the emergence of a French-Russian Alliance. The British likewise had no desire to see such an alliance form; after all, they had personally intervened to dismantle the France-Austria Alliance.

If a French-Russian Alliance were to emerge, wouldn’t that be utterly catastrophic? John Bull did not believe that the Prussia-Austria Sub-States, caught in the middle, could match up to a concerted effort by France and Russia. This alliance would be far more fearsome than the France-Austria Alliance.

At the very least, the France-Austria Alliance had deep-seated conflicts of interest, making it not difficult to destroy. But it was different with a French-Russian Alliance. The two countries did not share a direct border, and their conflicts of interest were minimal, making this alliance not so easy to dissolve.

In contrast to the original timeline, the current Greater French Empire was the first military power on the European Continent, at least apparently so.

After annexing Italy, the population of France soared to 55 million, and its economy leapt ahead of Britain’s, while its industrial production was second only to that of the Anglo-Austrian two countries, with a very limited gap.

Militarily, it possessed the second greatest navy in the world, along with the strongest army. With such strength to alarm anyone, who would dare let them form an alliance with the Russians?

Merely a rapprochement between France and Russia caused an international uproar. The countries of Europe couldn’t stand it, and nor could the Vienna Government stay put.

In Vienna Palace, Franz, looking at the tense faces around him, reassured them, “Do not worry. When the British sought to break up the France-Austria Alliance, they chose to join it.

We are now allied with both France and Russia, so if they form an alliance, we are inherently part of it.

Breaking an alliance from the inside is much faster than from the outside. Moreover, the French are currently busy digesting their gains, and the Russians are preoccupied with reforms.

Even if they were thinking of forming an alliance, they definitely would not choose this time. Besides arousing the enmity of the European countries, what other purpose does this alliance serve?

If they truly intended to form an alliance, they would at least need a common enemy. The Kingdom of Prussia doesn’t qualify, and it seems we don’t attract that level of hatred, do we?”

Franz was convinced that a French-Russian maneuver was merely a feint, purely conjectured based on their interests. The alliance had the potential to form but lacked the impetus to do so.

Both French and Russians presently needed to resolve their internal conflicts, and even if they formed an alliance, they wouldn’t be able to expand abroad at this time, nor could they gain more from the European Continent.

The British-French-Austrian tripartite alliance had already divided the authority over most parts of the world, and this had become an established fact. At this moment, for the French to come forward, they would surely face obstruction.

With Alexander II still focused on internal reforms, there was no capacity to share their burden, and Napoleon III did not have the audacity to proceed.

Remember, Napoleon III was one who feared England greatly. It was the security provided by the France-Austria Alliance that gave him the courage to overcome this ailment, deep down, he most likely still harbored a deep-seated fear.

Without Russian assistance, to ask him to face the pressure from Anglo-Austria alone would be too much to handle.

Minister Weisenberg shook his head, “Your Majesty, no matter how small the possibility, we must nip this crisis in the bud.

To prevent the worst-case scenario, we must prepare contingency plans. Negotiations with the British must be accelerated, and if necessary, we must be ready to form an alliance with the Prussians.”

This response made Franz realize, isn’t this a replay of the original timeline’s European structure?

What comforted him was that Austria was much stronger than in the original timeline, and the potential alliance would be more powerful than the ‘German-Austrian Alliance’.

The alliance now included half of the Mediterranean, a greater part of the Balkan Peninsula, the addition of Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, and Latvia, at the loss of three-quarters of Italy.

With these changes, the overall strength had not declined. Of course, this was predicated on the British remaining non-committal; the prospect of a British-French-Russian tripartite alliance was indeed life-threatening.

Soon, Franz discarded such thoughts as too perilous; he who does not stand under the precarious wall, preferred not to take such risks.

Even if a land victory was achievable, at sea, it would simply be handing over an advantage. A Prusso-Russian war had already quashed any thoughts of the Kingdom of Prussia developing a navy, and relying on the Austrian Navy alone to take on England and France seemed implausible.

Counting on a naval breakthrough was less reliable than simply wiping out the Ottoman Empire and building a railway to the Suez Canal, which seemed more feasible.

Franz made his decision firmly: “We can strengthen ties with Prussia, but let’s not overdo it for now. France and Russia are merely drawing closer; too many actions on our part might provoke them.

From the current situation, it is unlikely that France and Russia would unite for an expansion in at least the next twenty years. As long as we instigate a Prusso-Russian war before their alliance, the worst-case scenario will not transpire.”

Clearly, Franz’s position had shifted, and he was prepared to let Russia lose again. With the appetite of the Junker nobles, if the Tsarist Government were to suffer another defeat, who would bet against their seizing St. Petersburg?

If the Tsarist Government collapsed, Austria could kick them while they were down, and in the coming decades, the Russians wouldn’t dream of rising again and might even lose the chance forever.

Looking at the map, one would understand why – losing the war and the fertile lands of Eastern Europe, they could not simply focus on developing Siberia, could they?

Currently, the populations of Russia and Austria were similar, but should the Tsarist Government fail again, losing substantial territory and population, the Russian Bear would no longer be formidable.

Of course, this action would have serious aftermaths; Prussia must also be greatly weakened so that another dangerous neighbor doesn’t emerge.

There was no other choice. Why else would Alexander II choose such a sensitive time to provoke Franz’s nerves?

The shadow of world war had been ever-present in Franz’s mind, making him deeply wary of a French-Russian Alliance. Even taking preemptive measures was enough to justify Franz’s intervention.